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Title: Dissertation Proposal
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Dissertation Proposal
Dental Qualifying Exam November. 30, 2005 CCPO
- Research of Physical and Biological Factors
Exercising West Antarctic Peninsula Adlie
Penguin Population Dynamics - Data Analysis
- Linking prey field to physical features (ocean-ice)
- Modeling Study
- Foraging, chick growth along with a population matrix
simulations
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Outline
- General Interest and Research Philosophy
- Research trends (context)
- Ecological context
- Research Questions
- Research Plan
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General Research Interest
- Using modeling and observational techniques
to look at the text between climate
variability and ecosystem behavior.
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Research Philosophy
- Combine conservative and dangerous goals to improve
contribution and chances for effective
finishing research. - Maintain communication with expertise.
- Create atmosphere that will for on-going
critique and assessment of research.
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Marine Ecosystem Research
- Growing passion for the influence of Climate on
Environments. - Passion for climate variability causing regime
change among multiple stable-states. - Free airline travel Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is unquestionably an
excellent model where ENSO will influence
atmospheric temperature and ocean-ice.
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Top Predator and Southern Sea Research
- Census and foraging behavior of seabirds
are employed to index outcomes of
ecological variability. - Extended-term data-sets and convenience to
atmospheric variability indices facilitate
time-series analyses.
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WAP Research
- Underlying mechanisms behind patterns are more and more being
investigated.
Fraser and Hofmann 2003, A predators perspective
on causal links between weather change, physical
forcing and ecosystem response. MEPS
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Ecological Context
- Warming (.56 C decade-1 Turner et al. 2005)
- Maximum ocean-ice coverage becoming less (15,000
km2 year -1 Kwok and Comiso, 2002) - Timing of ocean-ice advance and retreat altering
(duration lower .72 hrs year -1 Cruz et al.
2002) - Krill populations declining (50 decline since
1976 Atkinson et al. 2004 ) - Antarctic silverfish populations declining
(Adelie diets, internet tows Fraser, personal
communciation) - Anvers Island Adelie populations lower (40 since
1974 Fraser and Patterson, 1997) - Avian Island Adelie populations up (100 since
1974 Woehler, 2993 Fraser, unpublished data)
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Research Questions
- 1. How’s the prey field affected by variation
circulation and ocean-ice? - 2. How’s Adlie foraging, chick growth and
fledging weights breeding colonies affected by
variability within the prey field? - 3. Can these influences explain opposition
population trajectories at ANV and AVI? - 4. How are Adlie penguin population
trajectories affected by variations within the
ecological structure and prey availability?
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Atmospheric temperature
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Ocean-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Dying
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
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Atmospheric temperature
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Ocean-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
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Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Dying
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
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Data Ocean-ice, silverfish time-series
- Ocean-ice data
- NSIDC passive microwave satellite derived ice
concentration. - 25km grid
- Daily and monthly data since March. 1978
- Antarctic Silverfish composition
- Diet sample data
- Weekly since 1986 at Anvers Island
- One-time samples from Avian Island since 1995
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100 km and 200 km is different from colonies
lt15 ice coverage
gt15 ice coverage
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Human Sources Ocean-ice, silverfish time-series
- Ocean-ice
- Average percent coverage (gt15 ) within 100 km
and 200 km of Anvers Island and Avian Islands - Maximum ocean-ice extent
- Antarctic silverfish
- Percent composition in Adlie diet
- Spearman rank correlation
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Anticipated Contributions Ocean-ice, silverfish
time-series
- Advance understanding in the conditions
surrounding disappearance of silverfish from diet
at ANV. - Comprehend the age-type of fish inside the
diet at ANV, AVI? - Results will suggest physical-biological
processes affecting the distribution of
silverfish across the peninsula. - Results may help in parameterizing modeling
efforts.
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Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis.
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Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Ocean-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
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Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Dying
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
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Data Ocean-ice, krill census time-series
- Ocean-ice data
- NSIDC passive microwave satellite derived ice
concentration. - 25km grid
- Daily and monthly data since March. 1978
- Antarctic krill data
- Diet sample data
- Weekly since 1986 at Anvers Island
- One-time samples from Avian Island since 1995
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Human Sources Ocean-ice, krill census
time-series
- Ocean-ice
- Average percent coverage (gt15 ) within 100 km
and 200 km of Anvers Island and Avian Islands - Maximum ocean-ice extent
- Antarctic krill
- Virtual Population Analysis
- Krill growth rates (between seasons (ANV, AVI),
within seasons (ANV)) - Krill durability (ANV)
- Recruitment occasions (ANV)
- Spearman rank correlation
- Krill growth rates only. Relationship between
krill durability and recruitment occasions assessed
qualitatively.
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Fraser and Hofmann 2003
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d
Rate Of Growth
Relative presence
T1
T2
Krill length
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Anticipated Contributions Ocean-ice, krill
census time-series
- Measure the outcomes of physical
atmosphere and vital rates in krill. - Provide important relationship to be used in model
parameterizations.
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Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Ocean-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
1
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model.
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Chick growth
Dying
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
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ADULT FORAGING MODEL SCHEMATIC
Prey Field
Ingestion, Penguin adult
– Ingestion, chick
Chick Growth Model
Ingested food beyond Individual needs
Assimilated mass
– Respiratory system system system losses ( swimming resting
foraging)
Telemetry Data
Adult growth ( or -)
Estimate from literature
Survivorship (reproductive cost)
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Data Adult Foraging Model
- Telemetry studies (ANV, AVI1999 to provide)
- Foraging location, duration
- Activity budget (time spent diving, swimming,
resting) - Energetics data
- BMR, Swimming, found on ice, on land.
- Feeding rate
- Estimates from stomach mass, energetic
expenditure during foraging trip (e.g. Chappell
et al. 1993) - Mass(t) of adult penguins (ANV 1986 to
present?)
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Anticipated Contributions Adult foraging model
- Assess our understanding within the linkage between
physical-biological atmosphere and foraging
behavior - Provide you with the mechanistic framework to look for the
influence of ecological conditions and
variability on penguin foraging. - Model might be modified to look at other processes
appealing
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Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Ocean-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
1
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model.
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Chick growth
Dying
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
Chick growth modeling.
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CHICK GROWTH MODEL SCHEMATIC
Adult foraging model
Ingestion, Penguin chick
Assimilated mass
Field collected data
Believed from literature
– Respiratory system system system loss
Internet productivity
Chick growth
Fledge
Dying
Recruitment
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Data Chick Growth Model
- Salihoglu parameterizations
- Field collected data.
- Feeding rate
- Daily weighing of marked chicks during crche
period to derive feeding rates, chick growth. - Immediate growth measurements at AVI 1999
to provide. - Caloric content of prey (t).
- Blast calorimeter at ANV and AVI.
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Anticipated Contributions Chick growth model
- Enables analysis within the influence of
diet complexity around the development of chicks. - The model will most likely be parameterized to evaluate varied
conditions and penguin prey field across the west
Antarctic Peninsula.
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Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Ocean-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
1
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model.
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Chick growth
Dying
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
Leslie Matrix Simulations.
Chick growth modeling.
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Data Leslie Matrix Simulations
- Extended-term demographic studies (circum-Antarctic)
- Modified to represent populations on west
Antarctic Peninsula (banding studies at ANV)
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Linked Model Simulations
- Historic conditions at Anvers Island
- Current conditions at Anvers Island and Avian
Island - Future climate scenarios
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Anticipated Contributions Combined model
simulations
- Models might be modified and expanded to deal with
future research questions. - Will assess condition of current understanding.
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Questions? Comments? Concerns?
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