Discussion Response

PART 1:

Please Respond the the following (3) Discussions in either an agree or disagree format and why. Each response needs a source and 150 words or more.

RESPONSE 1:————–

The importance of understanding how change will impact project and product outcome is imperative. Understanding the effects of change can help a manager navigate changes and use the changes of their the benefit of the team. The only constant is change so being able to adapt to change is key to success in any project.

An example of force field analysis of change would be an organization meeting to update safety rules for a workplace. The group will define what safety rule they are trying to change, for instance, limiting cellular device usage while driving. The team will then identify that cell phone usage while driving is dangerous and has caused damage to company vehicles and other property. The team will assume that all of the forces, in favor or opposing, will understand and agree that the rule for this needs to be changed for safety. The team will develop an awareness plan to inform other employees of the new changes to the policy. The team, and company, will then change the usage of cellular devices while driving.

Brainstorming would be a team sitting down and deciding on a new direction the company would want to go. A company that built laptops would be needing to adapt to a more mobile environment. To garner ideas for new products to sell to the public the organization would have brainstorming sessions with their team mates to garner ideas for new products. This could be done in a formal or informal setting.

A team will utilize affinity diagrams when trying to develop a new method or process. An example of this would be a furniture manufacturer trying to decide on a new market to sell to. Team mates would write down ideas on a sticky note that would be posted on a white board. The sticky notes would be organized into groups that are matching.

Nominal group and multivoting would be used by a chocolate company that put forth a survey to find a better way to wrap their candy bars. The survey would be limited in ideas and people within the packaging organization would participate. The ideas would be collected and tabulated based on the number of similar ideas.

References

Rose, K. H. (2014). Project Quality Management Why, What and How. Plantation FL: J. Ross Publishing Inc.

RESPONSE 2:——————-

Three different methods of estimating project durations are experience, expert opinion, and mathematical derivations. Experience draws the methodologies of past project, looking back at similar projects that have been completed before and understanding how long the have taken. For example, if a F1 race team wants to design and build a new front wing for their race car they can look at previous front wings that have been designed and built to decide how long it will take to design and build the new wing. Expert opinion invites someone in or draws upon the experience of another to decide how long the project will take. The F1 team could discuss with retired engineers or other teams to find out how long it took to design new front wings. Mathematical derivation utilizes mathematical equations to develop a best-case scenario, most likely scenario, and a worst-case scenario.

The method of experience could be utilized in the South Dakota wireless project by looking at a similar state that implemented a similar project. Suppose North Dakota implemented a wireless project that is similar to what South Dakota is implementing. South Dakota could look to the duration it took North Dakota to fulfill their project and build a schedule that is similar in length.

Beta distribution calculations are the best method to derive activity because it takes a serious look at the probability of the best case or worst case scenario happening. In the South Dakota wireless project, the worst case scenario would be a string of earthquakes happening and taking out all of the cell phone tower sites. The likelihood of this happening is very slim so to develop a schedule based on this would be maddening. A drawback of this would be utilizing the beta distribution calculation in scheduling the South Dakota wireless project and a string of earthquakes actually occurring and really taking out all of the new cell phone tower sites. The project at that point would be drastically behind without any chance of success.

References

Pinto, J. (2016). Project Management Achieving Competitve Advantage. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Pearson.

RESPONSE 3:—————–

Project Duration Estimates

There are three different methods which can be used to determine project duration estimates. The first duration estimate includes experience. This method is useful for estimating a project’s duration if there is previous experience with working that particular type of project. In designing a tour route for the Boeing South Carolina Family Day event next year, I can best estimate my project’s duration with experience, as I have worked this same project in the past. However, when utilizing experience, project managers should be cautious of potentially relying on outdated information (Pinto, 2016, p. 308).

The second method of estimating project duration includes utilizing expert opinion. In some case, project managers can contact an expert in a particular field or area related to the project they are developing. By working with an expert, a project manager can gain useful information regarding their project, including “the easiest avenues, best contacts, and fastest processes to complete tasks” (Pinto, 2016, p. 308). While getting an expert’s opinion is beneficial in estimating project duration, project managers should be cautious of relying too heavily on opinion, as the guidance and answers provided by the expert may not always be absolute.

The third method of estimating project duration is the mathematical derivation. According to Pinto (2016), “this method consists of developing duration probability based on a reasoned analysis of best-case, most-likely case, and worst-case scenario” (p. 308). While this is a more objective alternative compared to the more subjective methods previously mentioned, this may not be the best method for new or less-experienced project managers.

Beta Distribution Calculations

According to Cho and Yum (1997), “A PERT network is a useful structure for the management and control of projects in which the duration of each activity is uncertain and is described by a random variable” (p. 2737). There are numerous benefits and drawbacks of using beta distribution calculations. A chief benefit of this calculation includes that the “beta or asymmetrical, distribution better represents the distribution of possible alternative expected duration times (TE) for estimating activities” (Pinto, 2016, p. 309). Beta distribution calculations also provide a more objective alternative to activity duration estimation, which helps avoid many of the problems that are found using more subjective activity duration estimating. Applying a four times factor to the “most likely” activity time helps reduces impact from pessimistic and optimistic estimates. Beta distribution calculations can be used to further develop confidence intervals, providing the high reasonable probability of correctly estimating the total duration of a project. One drawback to using beta distribution calculations include the requirement of complex mathematical calculations.

Within the aerospace industry, there are many common activities that occur in our projects (i.e. creating purchase orders, developing a part drawing, updating an assembly plan, or machining a part). When we understand all of the activities required to complete a proposed project, we can use historical data to develop fairly accurate schedules using mathematical derivations such as those suggested by the beta distribution and using Monte Carlo simulations. This process is often required for complex and expensive projects, but they do require a lot of upfront resources. For smaller and less complex projects, using expert opinions can be more cost-effective. For my project in particular, I would rely on experience and expert opinion, rather than utilizing beta distribution calculations.

References

Cho, J., & B, Y. (1997). An uncertainty importance measure of activities in PERT networks. International Journal of Production Research, 2737-2757.

Pinto, J. K. (2016). Project Management: Achieving Competitive Advantage. Upper Saddle River: Pearson Education, Inc.

PART 2:

In 150 words or more list three things you learned from this and how they can be used in a career.